Economist Dr. George Domfeh Challenges Government’s GDP Claims in Mid-Year Budget Review, Says Finance Minister Ato Forson’s Presentation Is a “Lie”

Economist Dr. George Domfeh has questioned the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures presented by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson in the 2025 Mid-Year Budget Review, arguing that the reported increase in Ghana’s GDP in US dollar terms should not be interpreted as a significant expansion of the country’s real economic activity. Speaking in an interview with Nhyiraba Kwabena Asirifi on ICADTV’s Ghana Nti Morning Show, Dr. Domfeh described the presentation of the GDP figures as misleading, contending that the increase was driven primarily by the appreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar rather than by exceptional economic growth. According to Dr. Domfeh, Ghana’s GDP was approximately US$79 billion in 2021 before declining to about US$73 billion in 2022. He said the economy later recovered to around US$83 billion in 2024, making the reported increase to US$114 billion within a year difficult to explain solely through economic expansion. He argued that Ghana’s real economy grew by 5.7% in 2024 and is projected to grow by about 6% in 2025, representing an increase of only 0.3 percentage points. “The economy has grown by around 6%, not 37%,” Dr. Domfeh said, adding that if GDP were measured strictly by the pace of economic activity, Ghana’s economy would be closer to US$88 billion rather than US$114 billion. Dr. Domfeh explained that the Ghana Statistical Service calculates GDP in cedis before converting it into US dollars for international reporting. He maintained that the recent appreciation of the cedi and the depreciation of the US dollar significantly increased the dollar value of Ghana’s GDP without reflecting an equivalent rise in actual production and economic output. According to him, the stronger cedi has improved the country’s macroeconomic indicators but should not be interpreted as evidence of a dramatic increase in economic activity. He acknowledged that Ghana has experienced positive macroeconomic developments, including a stronger cedi, lower inflation, and improved economic stability. However, he insisted these gains should be distinguished from real GDP growth. Dr. Domfeh also addressed Ghana’s public debt, arguing that the recent decline in the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio does not necessarily mean the total public debt has reduced. He explained that the debt-to-GDP ratio is calculated by dividing the country’s total debt stock by its GDP and multiplying the result by 100. Therefore, he said, an increase in GDP—particularly one influenced by exchange rate movements—can reduce the ratio even when the actual debt stock remains unchanged. He further noted that under the West African Monetary Zone convergence criteria, countries are generally expected to maintain a debt-to-GDP ratio below 70% to demonstrate fiscal sustainability and strengthen their ability to access financing. Dr. Domfeh concluded that while the appreciation of the cedi has positively influenced Ghana’s economic indicators, the reported rise in GDP should be viewed in the context of exchange rate effects rather than as evidence of an extraordinary expansion in the country’s real economy.